Novara made a really poor start away to Lanciano last Tuesday evening which cost them of points. They entered the match way too passive and were already in fourth minute down in the scoreline thanks to a goal from Marilungo and even before the first fifteen minutes were completed, they stood again with a goal conceded, this time via Di Francesco. Their slow entrance into the match completely determined the outcome of it.
Still, their first response was a very quick one, since the team reduced the deficit in 27th minute with a goal from Galabinov, but failed to convert any of their further chances into goals. They were even better int he second half, but failed to convert any chance into goals, since the players of Lanciano were saved few times in a really difficult situations for themselves. It was their second consecutive defeats in away matches, but at least this time the team improved big time in the repetition. As for the standings, they are now just a point below the play-off zone and the team remains in a must win situation for this one. The team has only one victory in last six matches and surely need this one badly in order to improve their ranking but also boost their morale. Midfielder Buzzegoli Daniele is back in the team, while they miss defensive Dell’Orco Christian (26/0) and Garofalo Agostino (19/1).
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Perugia was hoping for much more than a plain defeat away to Modena, but the team showed really close to nothing and surely didn’t deserved better than 3:0 defeat, which was one of the most surprising results last Tuesday evening. After first few minutes which were quite balanced, home side took control over the game and celebrated the victory with three goals from Granoche.
They were simply unable to sop here and conceded twice inside the three minutes (in 29th and 32nd minute) and just when they looked like making some pressure and initiative in the second halftime, the Uruguayan scored his hat-trick leaving the visiting side without any chance to respond further. After three consecutive positive results on the road, Perugia played below any desired level and will now need to bounce back, since the team now remains seven points below the play-off zone and if they are to have any chance of reaching it again – they need a victory here badly. Forward Jean-Armel Drole (19/1) is suspended, while injured remain forward Zapata Alexis (19/2), midfielder Taddei Rodrigo (14/0) and full back Alhassan Masahudu (10/0).
Both teams will want a victory in this one and they both need it badly. Novara remains favorite and is surely closer to get it, however the team is far away from a perfect one in the defensive lineup and they do concede recently usually at home as well. Having in mind their defensive absentees, but also the fact that Perugia needs to respond badly, I see plenty of value with the current odds for over 2.5 goals. Chances are surely not well below 50%.
picks: Over 2.5 goals